Supply keeps climbing, led by record U.S. output and rising OPEC+ production. ・Demand remains soft, especially in China, while geopolitical risk premiums fade. ・Lower oil is easing inflation, pushing U.

A corner of the US crude market closely watched by physical traders is signaling oversupply in the latest indication that a global glut has reached domestic shores.

Wall Street lacked clear direction on Tuesday, as mixed labor market data failed to ignite a fresh wave of risk-on sentiment.

"The administration is pushing for $40 per barrel crude oil, and with tariffs on foreign tubular goods, [input] prices are up, and drilling is going to disappear," one survey respondent said. "The oil industry is once again going to lose valuable employees."

The Middle Eastern oil market has weakened in recent weeks on concern that regional supplies will outstrip demand, adding to signs of a softening global picture that’s weighed on benchmark crude futures.

For example, US shale is known to be profitable at around $70 per barrel. As pressure mounts, producers can be squeezed out of the market, which can then result in a too-short supply in the future, potentially raising future prices in the energy commodity.

Oil prices stumbled in 2025 on weaker demand and surging supply. One of the world's biggest commodities firms says the dynamic will worsen in 2026.

Dan Pickering talks about America's seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, and says the Trump administration doesn't want higher oil prices, but wants to use energy and revenue sources as a way to get what it wants – in this case,

Market sentiment may be overly bearish on oil, as commercial traders are nearly net long and speculators have largely exited CME futures. Read what investors need to know.

Lower prices risk slowing U.S. shale and non-OPEC+ output, setting up the possibility that today’s glut becomes tomorrow’s crunch